In pushing for ouster of US ambassador to Mexico, did Calderón shoot the messenger?
By
Nacha Cattan/
March 25, 2011
When US Ambassador to Mexico Carlos Pascual stepped down March 19 following public ridicule from Mexican President Felipe Calderón, it appeared a score between two outsized personalities had been settled.
It also seemed that President Calderón's image as a tough nationalist
could be on the mend, after suffering in recent weeks from revelations
that US security forces permit guns to flow into Mexico in order to
track traffickers through Operation Fast and Furious, and also that Calderón had authorized US drones to fly deep into Mexico unbeknownst to Mexico's Congress.
But
rather than cheering the departure of Mr. Pascual – a man some believed
disdained this country – Mexican columnists, academics, and even an
ex-president turned a critical eye on Calderón. The resignation did
little to calm outrage over recent bilateral impasses with the United
States, and has instead underscored the intense tug-of-war that Calderón
is in between Washington and the Mexican public.
To add to the
frustration, which for now is mostly mounting on the Mexican side,
Pascual may not quickly be replaced, as a lengthy and politicized
process to choose his successor is expected. All of this raises doubts
that Pascual’s departure will improve US-Mexico relations or Calderón's image as he gears up for a tough reelection campaign next year.
“Pascual’s
resignation could lead to a modification in style but not substance in
bilateral relations,” respected historian Lorenzo Meyer wrote yesterday
in Spanish-language Reforma newspaper. He likened the current situation
to 1927, when the recall of a US ambassador failed to stop the United
States from imposing its interests regarding oil above those of Mexico.
Problems mount for Calderón
The controversy began when diplomatic cables leaked from Pascual's time at the USembassy portrayed Mexican security forces as deeply corrupt and uncoordinated. Calderón called out Pascual for his “ignorance”
in an El Universal interview last month and the president’s trip to
Washington shortly thereafter came amid tensions over the Feb. 15 murder of a US special agent in Mexico.
Despite
Pascual’s departure, which many Mexican politicians supported, analysts
point out that cooperation between both countries’ administrations and
security forces is still at an all-time high.
“The real day to day
cooperation is deepening,” says Andrew Selee, director of the Mexico
Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center. But the tone of the relationship
will go through ups and downs as 2012 presidential elections approach
for both countries, he adds, crediting negative comments against
Calderón as signs of the nearing election season.
Mr. Selee says
Pascual may not leave Mexico for weeks and a successor may come under
intense cross-examination by US lawmakers who could use Pascual’s
resignation to sound off against American policy in Mexico.
Other
analysts say Pascual's pressured resignation may portray Calderón as a
stronger bargainer for Mexican interests in bilateral negotiations.
'He killed the messenger'
But
judging from local reaction, mostly played out in the media, which
ranges from questioning the move to criticizing Calderón, it is not
clear the incident has helped the president.
“Felipe Calderón
finally got what he wanted. He killed the messenger,” Denise Dresser, a
well-known political commentator, wrote in Reforma. “For telling the
truth even though it hurts to acknowledge it.”
Even former
President Vicente Fox of Calderón’s own political party told Newsmax.com
that Pascual’s assessments of Mexico's grim security situation were not
far from the truth, and that Calderón should return the Army to their
barracks.
Some commentators are also raising concerns about a
“boomerang effect” in which Mexican interests in Washington may be hurt
and a vacuum may be created at the embassy, says pollster Jorge Buendia
of Buendía & Laredo in Mexico City.
But while the media has
not stopped opining on Pascual, the public has little knowledge or
interest in an affair that does not affect them directly, he says. That
assessment rings true in the case of Antonio Aguilar, who owns a small
diner in Mexico City.
“I was surprised that the president could
overthrow an ambassador of such high caliber,” he says. “But if Calderón
throws a fit, why should it matter to me?”
Public opinion polls
show confidence in Mexico’s security has dropped steadily as more than
35,000 people have died in the past four years of the drug war. Major
media outlets signed a pact Thursday agreeing to stop sensationalizing
the violence or beaming images of bloodshed into Mexican homes.